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Surebets

Updated 06 April, 2013 08:41

This section is intended mostly for novices. It contains information about surebets.

What is a surebet?

A surebet (also referred to as betting arbitrage, miraclebet or arb) is a set of bets on a certain event that guarantees a profit of no less than the total amount of bets made, regardless of the result of the event.
Simply put, it’s a situation where the player gets a profit regardless of the situation – or at least does not lose anything.
Bets comprising a surebet are called surebet shoulders. A surebet should not necessarily yield profit for all of its shoulders. A player may want to set bets in a way that will produce a better result under specific conditions. Surebets can also be used for padding, e.g distributing your money pool in such a way that will maximize your winnings in some outcomes and return your total bets amount in all other situations.

How does it work?

Let’s take a look at an example of a surebet placed on a specific event – for instance, a game between Chelsea and Manchester United.
Here are the lines of three bookmakers for this event:

Gol+Pas

Bwin

Leon

Let’s assume the three possible outcomes as the victory of the first team, a draw and the victory of the second team.
As a rule, players place a bet and hope for luck. If they aren’t lucky, their money will be lost.
Apparently, if you place three bets at once, each on a separate outcome, one of them will definitely win, since one of the teams always wins or there is a draw. However, no matter how much we bet, our prize money will never cover or lost bets, so there is always a chance of losing money. This happens because bookmakers always add a certain commission (a.k.a margin) to their odds. Bookmaker always try to adjust their odds in a way that will give then advantage over players.
Fortunately, however, there are thousands of betting exchanges and bookmakers across the world. It’s rarely possible for them to track the changes in each other’s odds. That’s where betting arbitrage or surebets can be used.

Let’s bet 439.31 dollars on Chelsea’s victory with an odd of 2.3 for Goal+Pass, 306.18 dollars on a draw with an odd of 3.3 in Bwin and 254.51 dollars on Manchester’s victory in Leon with an odd of 3.97.
The total of our bets is 439.31 + 306.18 + 254.51 = 1000 dollars.
If Chelsea wins, we’ll get 439.31 х 2.3 = 1010.41 dollars.
If there is a draw, we’ll get 306.18 х 3.3 = 1010.39 dollars.
If Manchester wins, we’ll get 254.51 х 3.97 = 1010.40 dollars.

So no matter what happens, we have a guaranteed winning of about $10.40 on top of the total amount of our bets! And that’s a 1% return. From just one event. You can easily make several surebets a day. If you push the same bank through at least 10 surebets with a 1.5 return, you’ll get 15%. Banks offer the same interest, but per year :)
Our service detects hundreds of surebets with up to 30% profitability every day. As a rule, each surebet brings 2-3% of profit.

How to find surebets?

(We will not look into the mathematical foundation of surebets in this article. For those interested in it, there will be a separate article about this later on)
To find a surebet, you must first find a set of bets meeting the following conditions:

  • regardless of the outcome, one of the bets wins or all bets are returned
  • the odds allow you to distribute the total bets amount in such a way that regardless of the outcome, the income from the winning bet is higher than or equal to the total bets amount

In order to find such a set of bets, you need to collect lines from as many bookmakers as possible and check whether they meet the conditions described above.
Apparently, this is a tedious and calculation-intensive task. Besides, the search must be completed as quickly as possible to have the most up-to-date information at hand. Bookmakers are actively optimizing their lines and lucrative surebets are short-lived.

However, we are lucky to live in an era when everyone can drop the burden of monotonous calculations and leave it to the computer! It will do it better and faster, while you can do something more enjoyable :)
To find the best surebets, just visit our service to find them sorted and stacked up for you.

What kinds or surebets are there?

Surebets differ by the number of shoulders and types of bets.
The simplest surebet consists of at least two bets. Examples:

W1 – W2
1 – X2
12 – X
1X – 2
Over – Under

More complex, but equally common surebets are based on three non-overlapping outcomes. In such surebets, one bet wins and two others lose:

1 – X – 2
H1 – X – 2
1 – X – H2
H1 – X – H2

Apart from this, there are numerous surebets where outcomes can overlap, so in some cases, two bets can win at the same time (alternatively, one can win and the other can be returned). Here are some of them:

1X – 12 – X2

H1 – X – 2
H2 – X – 1
H1 – X2 – 2
H2 – 1X – 1
H1 – X – 2
H2 – X – 1
H1 – X2 – 2
H2 – 1X – 1
H1 – X – 2
H2 – X – 1
H1 – X2 – 2
H2 – 1X – 1
H1 – X – H2
H2 – X – H1
H1 – X2 – H2
H2 – 1X – H1
H1 – X – H2
H1 – X2 – H2
H2 – 1X – H1
H1H2 – 2
H2H1 – 1
H1 – X2 – H2
H2 – 1X – H1
H1H2 – 2
H2H1 – 1
H1 – 12 – X2
H2 – 12 – 1X
H1 – 12 – H2
H1 – 12 – X2
H2 – 12 – 1X
H1 – 12 – H2
H2 – 12 – H1

Over(2.0) – Under(2.5) – Under(1.5)
Under(2.0) – Over(1.5) – Over(2.5)
Over(2.25) – Under(2.5) – Under(1.5)
Under(1.75) – Over(1.5) – Over(2.5)
Over(1.75) – Under(2.5) – Under(1.5)
Under(2.25) – Over(1.5) – Over(2.5)
Under(1.75) – Over(1.5) – Over(2)
Over(2.25) – Under(2.5) – Under(1.75)
Over(2.0) – Under(2.25) – Under(1.5)
Under(2.0) – Over(1.75) – Over(2.5)
Over(2.0) – Under(2.5) – Under(1.75)
Under(2.0) – Over(1.5) – Over(2.25)
Over(1.75) – Under(2.0) – Under(1.5)
Under(2.25) – Over(1.75) – Over(2.5)

There are also surebets with a larger number of possible outcomes. In tennis, for example, you may encounter surebets with four or even six bets.

S(0:2) – S(1:2) – S(2:0) – S(2:1)
S(0:3) – S(1:3) – S(2:3) – S(3:0) – S(3:1) – S(3:2)

You can create new types of surebets by replacing equivalent bets in the abovementioned surebet formulas, as well as by shifting totals and handicaps.

H1 (1.0) – H2 (1.25) – H2 (0.75)
H1 (0.75) – H2 (1.5) – H2 (0.5)
H1 (1.25) – H2 (1.5) – H2 (0.5)

What are the possible pitfalls?

In theory, a surebet must always generate profit. However, the reality is a bit different, so you’ve got to be aware of possible risks and try to avoid them.

Sometimes, you just can’t place bets on all surebet shoulders. This can be caused by a limitation on the bookmaker’s side or a bookmaker’s refusal to accept a bet outside the system or express. Sometimes, bookmakers don’t accept more than one bet from one player on the same event. Besides, odds can change with time. And while the player is placing bets on certain outcomes, other odds may change for the worse.

The danger of this situation is that the bet that has not been placed can actually win, while all other bets will be lost.

You should also make sure that all bookmakers taking part in a surebet use the same rules in terms of allowing overtimes and shootouts, draws and so forth.

But even if all bets are made, there is a risk that the bookmaker will call the payment off. Virtually all bookmakers reserve the right to refuse to pay if there is a technical problem with determining the odd value. The possibility of this happening depends on the reliability of the bookmaker and the profitability of the surebet. The higher the profitability and the less reliable the bookmaker is, the more likely it is that the payment will be called off. That’s why you shouldn’t hop on super-profitable surebets right away. It’s a good idea to check and recheck, especially if the profit is above 10%. We managed to place surebets with 100% profitability and get our money, but this is more of an exception :)

Apparently, bookmakers may not like the fact that a certain player walks sway every month with a solid amount. In this case, they can come up with all kinds of obstructions – bans or payment recalls, for instance. But if a bookmaker cares about reputation, it’s less probable that they will use such methods. Betting exchanges are different. They don’t care about surebetters, as they make money on charging a commission on wins and it’s the players who play there. That’s why surebetting on exchanges is safer.

Use of an automatic surebet search saves you the trouble of performing routine calculations and searches. Software, on the other hand, can also go wrong here and there, so we always recommend our customers to manually recheck all surebets before placing a real bet. Besides, even if our service did everything right, it’s possible that some of the odds may have been updated since the last scan.
When playing with surebets, keep your head up and thoroughly analyze your bets. Also, choose bookmakers with extreme caution if you want to be able to get your money without problems.