The Expected Value (EV) displayed in Middles represents the calculated average profit you can anticipate based on the combined odds and probabilities of the bets involved. The calculation takes into account different scenarios, including cases where both bets win, only one bet wins, or neither bet wins. This provides a more accurate assessment of the potential profitability of each middle opportunity.
Let us see how the EV value is obtained for a particular middle:
Find the Probability of hitting the middle. This is the chance that the “middle” outcome occurs. Hover your mouse over the far-right value in the top line to see the tooltip.
Calculate the probability of missing the middle. Subtract the hit probability from 100: Probability of missing = 100 - Probability of hitting
Calculate the expected result if the middle is hit. Multiply the profit when hitting (the green number) by the probability of hitting.
Calculate the expected result if the middle is missed. Multiply the profit or loss when missing (the red number) by the probability of missing.
Subtract the missed value (loss) from the hit value (profit) to find the net expected return.
Normalize the value. Divide the result by 100 to obtain the Expected Value (EV). This value appears as the far-left number in the row.
Given: Probability of hitting the middle: 21.3 Profit if hit: 69.6 Loss if missed: 15.22
Calculation: (21.3×69.6-(100-21.3)×15.22)/100≈2.9
Note: The displayed probability is rounded to one decimal place, while a more precise value is used for EV calculations.
